Hurrikane, Taifune & Zyklone

Eastern East Pacific: Shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished near the small area of low pressure located several hundred miles offshore of El Salvador and Nicaragua. Environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for development over the next several days as the system drifts westward or west-southwestward away from land, and development is no longer expected. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Eastern East Pacific (EP96): Shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished near the small area of low pressure located several hundred miles offshore of El Salvador and Nicaragua. Environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for development over the next several days as the system drifts westward or west-southwestward away from land, and the chances of it becoming a short-lived tropical cyclone are decreasing. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Eastern East Pacific (EP96): Recent satellite wind data indicates that a small area of low pressure located more than one hundred miles offshore of Nicaragua and El Salvador has a well-defined circulation and is producing winds of 30-35 mph near its center. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become less organized near its center. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable for additional development over the next several days as the system moves westward or west-southwestward away from land, and the chances of it becoming a short-lived tropical cyclone are decreasing. Regardless, this system is expected to bring periods of heavy rain to portions of Central America over the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern East Pacific (EP96): An area of low pressure located just offshore of Nicaragua has been producing increasingly organized shower and thunderstorm activity over the past several hours. Some additional development of this system is possible through early Monday while it drifts slowly northwestward. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development as the system turns westward away from land. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring periods of heavy rain to portions of Central America through tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Eastern East Pacific (EP96): An area of low pressure located just offshore of Nicaragua continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is possible through early Monday while the system drifts slowly northwestward. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as the system turns westward away from land. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern East Pacific: An area of low pressure located just offshore of Nicaragua continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is possible over the next day or so while the system drifts slowly northwestward. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as the system turns westward away from land. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern East Pacific: An area of low pressure located just offshore of Costa Rica and Nicaragua continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is possible over the next day or so while the system drifts slowly northwestward. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as the system turns westward away from land. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America over the remainder of this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern East Pacific: A broad area of low pressure located offshore of Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Recent satellite wind data indicate this system has a weak and elongated circulation. Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly hostile over the weekend, and the chances for further development are decreasing. However, this system could still bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Eastern East Pacific: A broad area of low pressure located offshore of Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A tropical depression could form over the weekend while the low drifts slowly offshore. Thereafter, upper-level winds should prevent any further development. This system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern East Pacific: A broad area of low pressure offshore of Central America is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. A tropical depression could still form over the weekend while the low drifts slowly offshore. Upper-level winds should prevent further development after the weekend. This system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern East Pacific: A broad area of low pressure offshore of Central America is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that remain disorganized. Gradual development of this system is still possible during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the low drifts slowly offshore of the Central America coast. Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern East Pacific: A broad area of low pressure offshore of Central America is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that remain disorganized. Gradual development of this system is still possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the low drifts slowly offshore of the Central America coast. Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern East Pacific: A broad area of low pressure offshore of Central America is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that have not become any better organized over the past day. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the low drifts slowly offshore of the Central America coast. Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern East Pacific: A broad area of low pressure offshore of Central America is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the low drifts northward. Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern East Pacific: A broad area of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms offshore of the coast of Central America. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the low drifts northward. Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern East Pacific: A broad area of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms offshore of the coast of Central America. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the low drifts northward. Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern East Pacific: An elongated trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms offshore of the coast of Central America. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the low drifts northward. Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America later this week and over the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern East Pacific: An elongated trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms offshore of the coast of Central America. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next few days while it drifts northward. Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America later this week and over the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Eastern East Pacific: An elongated trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms offshore of the coast of Central America. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next few days while it drifts northward. Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America later this week and over the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Western and Central Atlantic (AL94): A broad, non-tropical low pressure system located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center. The system remains in close proximity to fronts, and recent satellite images indicate the circulation of the low has become less defined today. Subtropical development of this system is not expected while it moves generally eastward and merges with a frontal system over the next day or two. For more information, including Gale Warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Western and Central Atlantic (AL94): A non-tropical low pressure area located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicates a sharpening frontal structure is associated with this system. The low could still briefly acquire some subtropical characteristics through tonight, though this scenario appears to be trending less likely. The low is forecast to move generally eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic during the next couple of days and become absorbed by a new non-tropical low pressure system to its east early next week. Regardless, gale-force winds are likely over parts of the central subtropical Atlantic through the weekend. For more information, including Gale Warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Western and Central Atlantic (AL94): A non-tropical low pressure area located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The low could still acquire some subtropical characteristics through tonight before upper-level winds increase on Sunday. The low is forecast to move generally eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic during the next couple of days and become absorbed by a new non-tropical low pressure system to its east early next week. Regardless, gale-force winds are likely over parts of the central subtropical Atlantic through the weekend. For more information, including Gale Warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Western and Central Atlantic (AL94): A non-tropical low pressure area located several hundred miles south of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The low could still acquire some subtropical characteristics through Saturday before upper-level winds increase on Sunday. The low is forecast to move generally eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic during the next couple of days and become absorbed by a new non-tropical low pressure system to its east early next week. Regardless, gale-force winds are likely over parts of the central subtropical Atlantic through the weekend. For more information, including Gale Warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Western and Central Atlantic (AL94): A non-tropical low pressure area located several hundred miles south of Bermuda is producing limited shower activity. The chances of this low acquiring subtropical characteristics are decreasing due to strong upper-level winds that are expected to persist over the system into the weekend. The low is forecast to move generally eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic during the next couple of days and become absorbed by a new non-tropical low pressure system to its east later this weekend. Regardless, gale-force winds are likely over parts of the central subtropical Atlantic through the weekend. For more information, including Gale Warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Western and Central Atlantic (AL94): A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure area located several hundred miles south of Bermuda is producing an area of cloudiness and showers. This system could briefly acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next couple of days while it moves generally eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic. By late this weekend, the low is forecast to become absorbed by a new non-tropical low pressure system to its east, and further development is not expected. Regardless, gale-force winds are likely over parts of the central subtropical Atlantic through the weekend. For more information, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 55.4E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA. 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 55.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 54.3E, APPROXIMATELY 392 NM NORTHEAST OF TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 070331Z 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONVECTION. ELEVATED WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY INDICATE A MORE FAVORABLE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN IN A 070435Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEANCE WITH 94S TRANSITING SLOWLY WESTWARD. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF ARE REMAINING CONSERVATIVE WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 070630) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 58.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 55.9E, APPROXIMATELY 466 NM NORTHEAST OF TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY DECONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING, CONVECTION OVER THE LLC. AN OBSERVATION FROM TROMELIN ISLAND SHOWS SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF 14 KNOTS, A MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MSLP) OF 1011MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 25-26C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, DEPICTING 94S SLOWLY TRANSITING WESTWARD WHILE SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

Eastern Central Pacific (CP95): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continue to become better organized. However, recent satellite wind data indicate the system still lacks a well-defined center. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to develop either later today or on Saturday. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward to westward at 10 to 15 mph, passing well south of the Hawaiian Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Central Pacific (CP95): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to develop later today or on Saturday. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward to westward at 10 to 15 mph, passing well south of the Hawaiian Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Central Pacific (CP95): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to develop on Friday. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward to westward at 10 to 15 mph, passing well south of the Hawaiian Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Central Pacific (CP95): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continue to show signs of organization, though recent satellite wind data indicate the system lacks a well-defined center. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to develop by early Friday. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward to westward at 10 to 15 mph, passing well south of the Hawaiian Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Central Pacific (CP95): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continue to become better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to develop, possibly as soon as later today. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward to westward at 10 to 15 mph, passing well south of the Hawaiian Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Central Pacific (CP95): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continue to become better organized. However, recent satellite wind data indicate the system still lacks a well-defined center. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to develop either later today or on Saturday. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward to westward at 10 to 15 mph, passing well south of the Hawaiian Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Central Pacific (CP95): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to develop later today or on Saturday. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward to westward at 10 to 15 mph, passing well south of the Hawaiian Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Central Pacific (CP95): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to develop on Friday. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward to westward at 10 to 15 mph, passing well south of the Hawaiian Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Central Pacific (CP95): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continue to show signs of organization, though recent satellite wind data indicate the system lacks a well-defined center. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to develop by early Friday. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward to westward at 10 to 15 mph, passing well south of the Hawaiian Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Central Pacific (CP95): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continue to become better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to develop, possibly as soon as later today. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward to westward at 10 to 15 mph, passing well south of the Hawaiian Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 150.6E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA. 1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 150.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 150.6E, APPROXIMATELY 398 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ASSESSED LLCC. A 060004Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWS A CLUSTER OF 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LLCC AND WITH WEAKER WINDS OF 5- 10 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE SEMI-CIRCLE. HOWEVER, THE MOST RECENT ANIMATED MSI SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS QUICKLY CLOSING OFF ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH 20-25KT WINDS MOST LIKELY BEGINNING TO WRAP FURTHER AROUND THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-29 KNOTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PORTRAYING 99W CONTINUING ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK PAST THE MARIANA ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHILE STEADILY CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1011 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 060200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 150.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 150.6E, APPROXIMATELY 398 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ASSESSED LLCC. A 060004Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWS A CLUSTER OF 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LLCC AND WITH WEAKER WINDS OF 5- 10 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE SEMI-CIRCLE. HOWEVER, THE MOST RECENT ANIMATED MSI SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS QUICKLY CLOSING OFF ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH 20-25KT WINDS MOST LIKELY BEGINNING TO WRAP FURTHER AROUND THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-29 KNOTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PORTRAYING 99W CONTINUING ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK PAST THE MARIANA ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHILE STEADILY CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1011 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 060200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0 159.9N IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 150.7E, APPROXIMATELY 408 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT AND CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION. RECENTLY DEVELOPED WESTERLIES SUGGEST THE CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO CLOSE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD GUAM AS IT CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT 99W RETAINING TROUGH-LIKE CHARACTERISTICS UNTIL WEST OF THE NORTHERN MARIANAS, THOUGH ELEVATED WINDS ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 99W BECOMING A WELL-DEFINED OR CLOSED CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1011 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 050900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 159.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 157.2E, APPROXIMATELY 738 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 042103Z SSMIS F16 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A POORLY- ORGANIZED, FULLY EXPOSED WAVE FEATURE, WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. A 042244Z ASCAT-C PASS, SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED EASTERLY WAVE FEATURE, WITH AN AXIS ALONG 158E, MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD WITH ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WHILE LACKING A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT EQUATORWARD THE WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 5- 10 KNOTS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PORTRAYING SLOW CONSOLIDATION INTO A CIRCULATION CENTER, WHILE 99W SLOWLY TRANSITS WESTWARD, OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0N 159.9E, APPROXIMATELY 890 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 99W AS A TROPICAL WAVE PROPAGATING WESTWARD WITH ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WHILE LACKING A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT EQUATORWARD THE WAVE. THIS IS MADE EVIDENT IN A 041013Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS, WHICH ALSO REVEALED 20-25 KNOT EASTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE WAVE AXIS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF (10-15 KTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) OFFSET BY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRANSITS GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

Western and Central Atlantic: A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure area located a few hundred miles south of Bermuda is producing an area of cloudiness and showers. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next couple of days while it moves slowly eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic. By late this weekend, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. While a new non-tropical low could form from the remnants of the current low early next week, environmental conditions are unlikely to support significant development. Regardless, gale-force winds are likely over parts of the central subtropical Atlantic through the weekend. For more information, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Western and Central Atlantic: A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure area located a few hundred miles south of Bermuda is producing disorganized convection. Environmental conditions could allow this system to acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next couple of days while it moves slowly eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic. By late this weekend, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. While a new non- tropical low could form from the remnants of the current low or to its east early next week, environmental conditions are unlikely to support significant development of that system. Regardless, gale-force winds are likely over parts of the central subtropical Atlantic through the weekend. For more information, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Western and Central Atlantic: A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure area located a few hundred miles south of Bermuda is producing disorganized convection to the north and east of its center. Environmental conditions could allow this system to gradually acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next couple of days or so while it moves slowly eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic. By late this weekend, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for further development of this system. A new non-tropical low could form to its east this weekend. Although environmental conditions are unlikely to support significant subtropical or tropical development of that system, gale-force winds are possible over parts of the central subtropical Atlantic through the weekend. For more information, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Western and Central Atlantic: A broad, non-tropical low pressure area located a few hundred miles south of Bermuda is producing some disorganized convection mainly to the east of its center. Environmental conditions could support this system gradually acquiring subtropical characteristics through this weekend while it moves slowly eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic. By early next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. For more information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Western and Central Atlantic: A non-tropical low pressure area is located a few hundred miles south of Bermuda. Environmental conditions could support this system gradually acquiring subtropical characteristics through this weekend while it moves slowly eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic. By early next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. For more information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Western and Central Atlantic: A broad area of low pressure is forming along a remnant frontal boundary a few hundred miles south of Bermuda. Environmental conditions could support this system gradually acquiring subtropical characteristics through this weekend while it moves slowly eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic. By early next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. For more information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Western and Central Atlantic: An area of low pressure is expected to form over the next day or so along a weakening front a few hundred miles south of Bermuda. This system could gradually acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week or this weekend while it moves slowly eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic. By early next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. For more information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP95): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure located over the eastern portion of the Central Pacific basin. While earlier satellite wind data suggested the system does not yet have a well-defined circulation, environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is now likely to form over the next day or so while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, passing well south of the Hawaiian Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP95): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the eastern portion of the Central Pacific basin are showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the Central Pacific basin during the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP95): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure located over the eastern portion of the Central Pacific basin are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the Central Pacific basin during the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP95): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure located over the eastern portion of the Central Pacific basin. While earlier satellite wind data suggested the system does not yet have a well-defined circulation, environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is now likely to form over the next day or so while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, passing well south of the Hawaiian Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP95): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the eastern portion of the Central Pacific basin are showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the Central Pacific basin during the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP95): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure located over the eastern portion of the Central Pacific basin are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the Central Pacific basin during the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP95): An area of low pressure located over the western portion of the East Pacific basin is starting to produce more concentrated shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the Central Pacific basin during the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP95): An area of low pressure located over the western portion of the East Pacific basin continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the Central Pacific basin during the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP95): A broad area of low pressure located over the western portion of the East Pacific basin is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the Central Pacific basin during the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP95): A broad area of low pressure located over the western portion of the East Pacific basin is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the Central Pacific basin during the next few days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP95): An area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph moving into the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP95): An area of low pressure located over the western portion of the East Pacific basin is starting to produce more concentrated shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the Central Pacific basin during the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP95): An area of low pressure located over the western portion of the East Pacific basin continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the Central Pacific basin during the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP95): A broad area of low pressure located over the western portion of the East Pacific basin is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the Central Pacific basin during the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP95): A broad area of low pressure located over the western portion of the East Pacific basin is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the Central Pacific basin during the next few days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP95): An area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph moving into the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Western Atlantic: An area of low pressure is expected to form along a weakening frontal boundary a few hundred miles south of Bermuda over the next day or so. This system could gradually acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week or this weekend while it moves slowly eastward over the western to central Subtropical Atlantic. By early next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. For more information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Western Atlantic: An area of low pressure is expected to form along a weakening frontal boundary a few hundred miles south of Bermuda over the next day or so. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week while it drifts slowly over the western Atlantic. The chances of subtropical development decrease by this weekend when the system is expected to move generally eastward into unfavorable environmental conditions. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Western Atlantic: An area of low pressure is expected to form along a weakening frontal boundary a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas in a day or so. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week while it drifts over the western Atlantic. The chances of subtropical development should end by the weekend when the system is expected to move eastward or northeastward into unfavorable environmental conditions. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Western Atlantic: An area of low pressure is expected to form along a weakening frontal boundary a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas in a day or so. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week while it drifts over the western Atlantic. The chances of subtropical development should end by the weekend when the system is expected to move eastward or northeastward into unfavorable environmental conditions. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Western Atlantic: An area of low pressure is likely to form along a weakening frontal boundary a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas in a couple of days. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week while it drifts over the western Atlantic. The chances of subtropical development should end by the weekend when the system is expected to move eastward or northeastward into unfavorable environmental conditions. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Western Atlantic: An area of low pressure is likely to form along a weakening frontal boundary a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas in a couple of days. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week while it drifts over the western Atlantic. The chances of subtropical development should end by the weekend when the system is expected to move eastward or northeastward into unfavorable environmental conditions. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days as it moves westward to west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph into the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter portions of this week as it moves westward to west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph over the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter portions of this week as it moves westward to west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph over the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter portions of this week as it moves westward to west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph over the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands remain disorganized. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter portions of this week as it moves westward to west-northwestward over the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands in a couple of days. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week as it moves westward to west-northwestward over the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands in a couple of days. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to end of the week as it moves westward to west-northwestward over the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by early next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the end of next week as it moves westward to west-northwestward over the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by early next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the end of next week as it moves westward to west-northwestward over the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by early next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of this system as it moves westward to west-northwestward into the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend or early next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of this system as it moves westward to west-northwestward into the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend or early next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of this system as it moves westward to west-northwestward into the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure could develop well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by this weekend or early next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of this system as it moves westward to west-northwestward into the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure could develop well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by this weekend or early next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of this system as it moves westward to west-northwestward into the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days as it moves westward to west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph into the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter portions of this week as it moves westward to west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph over the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter portions of this week as it moves westward to west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph over the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter portions of this week as it moves westward to west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph over the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands remain disorganized. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter portions of this week as it moves westward to west-northwestward over the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands in a couple of days. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week as it moves westward to west-northwestward over the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands in a couple of days. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to end of the week as it moves westward to west-northwestward over the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by early next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the end of next week as it moves westward to west-northwestward over the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by early next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the end of next week as it moves westward to west-northwestward over the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by early next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of this system as it moves westward to west-northwestward into the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend or early next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of this system as it moves westward to west-northwestward into the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend or early next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of this system as it moves westward to west-northwestward into the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure could develop well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by this weekend or early next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of this system as it moves westward to west-northwestward into the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad area of low pressure could develop well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by this weekend or early next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of this system as it moves westward to west-northwestward into the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 93.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 88.7E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 311200Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH DEEP, PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. A 311437Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALED 20 KTS WRAPPING AROUND THE ELONGATED LLCC, WHILE A SMALL REGION OF 25 KT WINDS IS PRESENT IN THE EASTERN FLANK. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15KTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE WITHIN MODERATE TO HIGH AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF 91B, WITH AI-BASED MODELS SHOWING THE QUICKEST DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS, WHILE PHYSICS-BASED MODELS DEPICT A SLOWER INTENSIFICATION AND DEVELOPMENT AFTER 24 HOURS. ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN 91B TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD MAINLAND INDIA OVER THE NEXT 24-48HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 310600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 95.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 93.2E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR. ENHANCED INFARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND WEAK BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 300212Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS A COMPACT, CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH WINDS UP TO 20KTS AROUND THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 95.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 94.4E, APPROXIMATELY 229 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND WEAK BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 300212Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS A COMPACT, CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH WINDS UP TO 20KTS AROUND THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 97.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 97.2E, APPROXIMATELY 99 NM NORTHWEST OF PHUKET. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY PORTRAYS A BROAD AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DISORGANIZED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, EVIDENT IN A 282127Z 91GHZ SSMIS PARTIAL PASS SHOWING LOOSELY CURVING CLOUD LINES, CONSISTENT WITH AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 281356Z. THE SAME ASCAT PASS REVEALED ELEVATED WINDS CONCENTRATED WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC, ASSOCIATED WITH THE REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE TRANSITING SLOWLY WESTWARD, AWAY FROM THE MALAY PENINSULA. DEEP CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED MOSTLY NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC, WITH MID-LEVEL TURNING OFFSET NORTHWEST OF THE ASSESSED CENTER POSITION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF THE AREA REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS WEST- NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE BAY OF BENGAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.9N 97.0E, APPROXIMATELY 347 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY PORTRAYS A BROAD AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, EVIDENT IN A 282127Z 91GHZ SSMIS PARTIAL PASS SHOWING LOOSELY CURVING CLOUD LINES, CONSISTENT WITH AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 281356Z. THE SAME ASCAT PASS REVEALED ELEVATED WINDS CONCENTRATED WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC, ASSOCIATED WITH THE REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE TRANSITING SLOWLY WESTWARD, AWAY FROM THE MALAY PENINSULA. DEEP CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED MOSTLY NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC, WITH MID-LEVEL TURNING OFFSET NORTHWEST OF THE ASSESSED CENTER POSITION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF THE AREA REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE BAY OF BENGAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 85.1E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 86.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 56.6E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED, DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE ASSESSED LLC. A RECENT 271045Z SSMIS F18 91GHZ BULLSEYE MICROWAVE REVEALS FRAGMENTED, WEAKLY-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A NASCENT LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15- 20KTS, MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OF 29-30C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT A RELATIVELY WEAK CIRCULATION RAPIDLY MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF TC 02B, AND UNDERGOING WEAK BINARY INTERACTION. MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED DEVELOPMENT, EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH DEPICTS THE SYSTEM ORGANIZING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN INDIA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOT DEPICTING 90B AS A SEPARATE CIRCULATION YET. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.0N 86.4E, APPROXIMATELY 329 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED, DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE ASSESSED LLC. A RECENT 271045Z SSMIS F18 91GHZ BULLSEYE MICROWAVE REVEALS FRAGMENTED, WEAKLY-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A NASCENT LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20KTS, MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OF 29-30C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT A RELATIVELY WEAK CIRCULATION RAPIDLY MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF TC 02B, AND UNDERGOING WEAK BINARY INTERACTION. MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED DEVELOPMENT, EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH DEPICTS THE SYSTEM ORGANIZING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN INDIA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOT DEPICTING 90B AS A SEPARATE CIRCULATION YET. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 90.9E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA. 1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 91.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 90.9E, APPROXIMATELY 272NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR, INDIA. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, AND FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. A 250746Z GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATION OF A PARTIAL INNER CORE WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), MODERATE TO STRONG POLEWARD AND WESTWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). THE RECENT RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN MSI AND OUTPUT FROM GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SUPPORT HIGH CONFIDENCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 251100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 88.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 90.3E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR, INDIA. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND CONVECTIVE BANDING FORMING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. A 240234Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS WINDS OF 25KTS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF FORMATION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND A REVERSAL IN STORM MOTION TOWARD THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 241100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 88.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 90.3E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98B WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP, OFFERING RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PROJECTION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 88.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 89.1E, APPROXIMATELY 342 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98B WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP, OFFERING RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PROJECTION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

Western Central Pacific: Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization with an area of low pressure just crossing the International Date Line, several hundred miles west of Johnston Atoll. Earlier satellite wind data indicated that the circulation was also becoming better defined. If these current trends continue, the system is likely to become a tropical depression, possibly as soon as later today. The system is moving towards the east-northeast at 10 to 15 mph and will slowly approach the Johnston Atoll later this week. By the middle of the week, however, strong upper-level winds should limit additional development of the system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Western Central Pacific: Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located near the International Date Line, several hundred miles west of Johnston Atoll. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early part of next week while the system moves east-northeastward at 10 to 15 mph. By the middle of next week, however, strong upper-level winds should limit any additional development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Western Central Pacific: Showers and thunderstorms are a little better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located just west of the International Date Line, several hundred miles west of Johnston Atoll. Some development of this system is possible over the next few days while it moves east-northeastward at 10 to 15 mph. By the middle of next week, however, strong upper-level winds should limit any additional development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Western Central Pacific: Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located near or just west of the International Date Line, several hundred miles west of Johnston Atoll, has become a little better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions could support some continued slow development while the system crosses the Dateline and moves generally eastward to east-northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Western Central Pacific: A broad area of low pressure located near or just west of the International Date Line, several hundred miles west of Johnston Atoll, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could support some slow development while the system moves generally eastward to east-northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Western Central Pacific: An area of low pressure is forecast to form near the International Date Line, several hundred miles west of Johnston Atoll late this weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions could support some slow development thereafter while the system moves generally eastward to east-northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Western Central Pacific: An area of low pressure is forecast to form near the International Date Line, a few hundred miles west-southwest of Johnston Atoll late this weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the system moves generally eastward to east-northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Western Central Pacific: An area of low pressure is forecast to form in the far western central Pacific a few hundred miles southwest of Johnson Atoll late this weekend of early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the system moves generally eastward to east-northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Western Central Pacific: Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization with an area of low pressure just crossing the International Date Line, several hundred miles west of Johnston Atoll. Earlier satellite wind data indicated that the circulation was also becoming better defined. If these current trends continue, the system is likely to become a tropical depression, possibly as soon as later today. The system is moving towards the east-northeast at 10 to 15 mph and will slowly approach the Johnston Atoll later this week. By the middle of the week, however, strong upper-level winds should limit additional development of the system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Western Central Pacific: Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located near the International Date Line, several hundred miles west of Johnston Atoll. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early part of next week while the system moves east-northeastward at 10 to 15 mph. By the middle of next week, however, strong upper-level winds should limit any additional development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Western Central Pacific: Showers and thunderstorms are a little better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located just west of the International Date Line, several hundred miles west of Johnston Atoll. Some development of this system is possible over the next few days while it moves east-northeastward at 10 to 15 mph. By the middle of next week, however, strong upper-level winds should limit any additional development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Western Central Pacific: Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located near or just west of the International Date Line, several hundred miles west of Johnston Atoll, has become a little better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions could support some continued slow development while the system crosses the Dateline and moves generally eastward to east-northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Western Central Pacific: A broad area of low pressure located near or just west of the International Date Line, several hundred miles west of Johnston Atoll, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could support some slow development while the system moves generally eastward to east-northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Western Central Pacific: An area of low pressure is forecast to form near the International Date Line, several hundred miles west of Johnston Atoll late this weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions could support some slow development thereafter while the system moves generally eastward to east-northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Western Central Pacific: An area of low pressure is forecast to form near the International Date Line, a few hundred miles west-southwest of Johnston Atoll late this weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the system moves generally eastward to east-northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Western Central Pacific: An area of low pressure is forecast to form in the far western central Pacific a few hundred miles southwest of Johnson Atoll late this weekend of early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the system moves generally eastward to east-northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 165.8E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA. 1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 165.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 165.8E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. A 2214Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALED A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH 20-25KT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LLCC REMAINS OPEN WITH A TROF EXTENDING EASTWARD AND VERY LIGHT WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS PRESENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW 97W REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT QUICKLY CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ENSEMBLE MODELS QUICKLY SHOW MEMBERS REACHING TROPICAL STORM SPEEDS AS IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 230130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 165.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 165.9E, APPROXIMATELY 178 NM NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLC WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 220919Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF TROUGHING ORIENTED EAST TO WEST WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ENCLOSING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ASSESSED POSITION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29- 30 C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF 97W. MODELS DEPICT A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 230130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 166.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 165.9E, APPROXIMATELY 261 NM NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLC WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 220919Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF TROUGHING ORIENTED EAST TO WEST WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ENCLOSING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ASSESSED POSITION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29- 30 C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF 97W. MODELS DEPICT A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18-23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.0N 166.8E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM SOUTH OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT AREA OF ROTATION WITH FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 97W STAYING QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

Subtropical Central Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east of Bermuda is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Further development of this system is not expected as it moves north-northeastward into increasingly unfavorable environmental conditions during the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Subtropical Central Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the east-southeast of Bermuda is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slight development of this system is possible through Friday while it moves slowly north-northeastward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become too strong for further development by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Subtropical Central Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next day or two while it moves slowly north-northeastward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become too strong for further development by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Special Outlook issued to raise formation probabilities for AL93 Offshore of the East Coast of the United States (AL93): Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized in association with a storm-force low pressure area located a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic United States coast. The system has continued to acquire subtropical characteristics today and has become separated from fronts. If these trends continue, a subtropical storm could form later this afternoon or tonight while it accelerates northeastward. Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast during the next few days. For more information, including hurricane-force extratropical wind warnings, please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center, along with the High Seas Forecasts and the Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Offshore of the East Coast of the United States (AL93): A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic United States coast has acquired some subtropical characteristics since yesterday, including some organized thunderstorm activity and less defined frontal features near the center. This system has the potential to become a subtropical storm tonight or early Thursday as it accelerates to the northeast before upper-level winds and water temperatures become unfavorable for further development on Friday. Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast during the next few days. For more information, including hurricane-force extratropical wind warnings, please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center, along with the High Seas Forecasts and the Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Offshore of the East Coast of the United States (AL93): A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic United States coast is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity primarily west and northwest of its center. Over the next day or two, the low could gradually lose its frontal features while it moves slowly north-northeastward over the Gulf Stream, allowing the system to possibly develop subtropical characteristics. By Friday, the system is expected to accelerate northeastward away from the the eastern United States, and environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for additional subtropical or tropical development. Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast during the next few days. For more information, please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center, along with the High Seas Forecasts and the Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Offshore of the East Coast of the United States (AL93): A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic United States coast is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity primarily west and northwest of its center. Satellite imagery indicates that the low is still frontal. Over the next day or two, the low could gradually lose its frontal features while it moves slowly north-northeastward over the Gulf Stream, allowing the system to briefly develop subtropical characteristics. By the end of the week, the system is expected to accelerate northeastward away from the the eastern United States, and environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for additional subtropical or tropical development. Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast during the next few days. For more information, please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center, along with the High Seas Forecasts and the Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Offshore of the East Coast of the United States (AL93): A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic United States coast is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity primarily west of its center. Satellite imagery indicates that the low is still frontal. Over the next couple of days, the low could gradually lose its frontal features while it moves slowly north-northeastward over the Gulf Stream, allowing the system to briefly develop subtropical characteristics. By the end of the week, the system is expected to accelerate northeastward away from the the eastern United States, and environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for additional subtropical or tropical development. Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast during the next few days. For more information, please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center, along with the High Seas Forecasts and the Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (EP94): Satellite imagery indicates that a low-pressure system located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity continues to become better organized, and if current trends persist, a tropical depression is expected to form later today. The system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph during the next few days, well offshore the coast of southern Mexico. For additional information, including Gale Warnings, see the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (EP94): A low-pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (EP94): A low-pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (EP94): Satellite images indicate that the circulation of a low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is becoming better defined. The associated showers and thunderstorms are also beginning to show signs of organization, and a tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (EP94): Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of organization in association with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph, remaining well offshore of Central America and southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (EP94): Showers and thunderstorms, associated with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Guatemala, remain disorganized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form around the middle of this week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph, well to the south of the coast of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Offshore the East Coast of the United States (AL93): A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located a few hundred miles off the North Carolina coast is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity primarily west of its center. Recent satellite wind data indicated the low is still frontal. Over the next couple of days, the low could develop some showers and thunderstorms near the low-level center and gradually lose its frontal features while it moves slowly north-northeastward over the Gulf Stream, allowing the system to briefly develop subtropical characteristics. By the end of the week, the system is expected to accelerate northeastward away from the the eastern United States, where environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for additional subtropical or tropical development. Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast during the next few days. For more information, please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center, along with High Seas Forecasts and Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Off the East Coast of the United States (AL93): A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located a few hundred miles off the North Carolina coast is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity primarily west of its center. However, overnight satellite wind data indicated the low was still attached to an occluded front. Over the next couple of days, the low could develop some organized deep convection and gradually lose its frontal features while it moves slowly north-northeastward over the Gulf Stream, allowing the system to briefly develop subtropical characteristics. By the end of the week, the system is expected to accelerate northeastward away from the the eastern United States, where environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for additional subtropical or tropical development. Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast during the next few days. For more information, please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center, along with High Seas Forecasts and Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Off the East Coast of the United States (AL93): A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area remains attached to an occluded frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the North Carolina coast. This low could develop some organized deep convection and gradually lose its frontal features over the next couple of days while it moves slowly north-northeastward over the Gulf Stream. By the end of the week, the system is expected to accelerate northeastward away from the the eastern United States, where environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for subtropical or tropical development. Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast during the next few days. For more information, please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center, along with High Seas Forecasts and Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Off the East Coast of the United States (AL93): A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area is currently attached to an occluded frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeast coast of the United States. This low is likely to move slowly north-northeastward over the next couple of days. If the low remains over the Gulf Stream, it could develop organized shower and thunderstorm activity. If the low is also then able to separate from frontal features, it could briefly acquire subtropical cyclone characteristics during the middle to latter portion of this week. The system is expected to move northeastward away from the the eastern United States later this week, and environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for subtropical or tropical development by the weekend. Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast during the next few days. For more information, please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center, along with High Seas Forecasts and Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.2S 57.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.9S 55.5E, APPROXIMATELY 47 NM NORTH OF SEYCHELLES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN AREA OF BROAD BUT CONSOLIDATING TURNING ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF FLARING CONVECTION. A 091530Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS REVEALS INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF 93S, WITH BROAD AND ASYMMETRIC BUT DEFINED FORMATIVE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING UNDER THE CONVECTION. A 191724Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALS ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15- 20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C), AND MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF 93S, THOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE ENSEMBLES. 93S IS EXPECTED TO TRANSIT GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 192000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.