Hurrikane, Taifune & Zyklone

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 93.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 88.7E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 311200Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH DEEP, PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. A 311437Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALED 20 KTS WRAPPING AROUND THE ELONGATED LLCC, WHILE A SMALL REGION OF 25 KT WINDS IS PRESENT IN THE EASTERN FLANK. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15KTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE WITHIN MODERATE TO HIGH AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF 91B, WITH AI-BASED MODELS SHOWING THE QUICKEST DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS, WHILE PHYSICS-BASED MODELS DEPICT A SLOWER INTENSIFICATION AND DEVELOPMENT AFTER 24 HOURS. ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN 91B TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD MAINLAND INDIA OVER THE NEXT 24-48HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 310600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 95.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 93.2E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR. ENHANCED INFARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND WEAK BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 300212Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS A COMPACT, CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH WINDS UP TO 20KTS AROUND THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 95.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 94.4E, APPROXIMATELY 229 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND WEAK BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 300212Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS A COMPACT, CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH WINDS UP TO 20KTS AROUND THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 97.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 97.2E, APPROXIMATELY 99 NM NORTHWEST OF PHUKET. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY PORTRAYS A BROAD AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DISORGANIZED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, EVIDENT IN A 282127Z 91GHZ SSMIS PARTIAL PASS SHOWING LOOSELY CURVING CLOUD LINES, CONSISTENT WITH AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 281356Z. THE SAME ASCAT PASS REVEALED ELEVATED WINDS CONCENTRATED WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC, ASSOCIATED WITH THE REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE TRANSITING SLOWLY WESTWARD, AWAY FROM THE MALAY PENINSULA. DEEP CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED MOSTLY NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC, WITH MID-LEVEL TURNING OFFSET NORTHWEST OF THE ASSESSED CENTER POSITION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF THE AREA REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS WEST- NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE BAY OF BENGAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.9N 97.0E, APPROXIMATELY 347 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY PORTRAYS A BROAD AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, EVIDENT IN A 282127Z 91GHZ SSMIS PARTIAL PASS SHOWING LOOSELY CURVING CLOUD LINES, CONSISTENT WITH AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 281356Z. THE SAME ASCAT PASS REVEALED ELEVATED WINDS CONCENTRATED WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC, ASSOCIATED WITH THE REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE TRANSITING SLOWLY WESTWARD, AWAY FROM THE MALAY PENINSULA. DEEP CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED MOSTLY NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC, WITH MID-LEVEL TURNING OFFSET NORTHWEST OF THE ASSESSED CENTER POSITION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF THE AREA REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE BAY OF BENGAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 85.1E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 86.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 56.6E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED, DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE ASSESSED LLC. A RECENT 271045Z SSMIS F18 91GHZ BULLSEYE MICROWAVE REVEALS FRAGMENTED, WEAKLY-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A NASCENT LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15- 20KTS, MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OF 29-30C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT A RELATIVELY WEAK CIRCULATION RAPIDLY MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF TC 02B, AND UNDERGOING WEAK BINARY INTERACTION. MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED DEVELOPMENT, EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH DEPICTS THE SYSTEM ORGANIZING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN INDIA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOT DEPICTING 90B AS A SEPARATE CIRCULATION YET. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.0N 86.4E, APPROXIMATELY 329 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED, DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE ASSESSED LLC. A RECENT 271045Z SSMIS F18 91GHZ BULLSEYE MICROWAVE REVEALS FRAGMENTED, WEAKLY-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A NASCENT LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20KTS, MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OF 29-30C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT A RELATIVELY WEAK CIRCULATION RAPIDLY MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF TC 02B, AND UNDERGOING WEAK BINARY INTERACTION. MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED DEVELOPMENT, EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH DEPICTS THE SYSTEM ORGANIZING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN INDIA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOT DEPICTING 90B AS A SEPARATE CIRCULATION YET. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 90.9E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA. 1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 91.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 90.9E, APPROXIMATELY 272NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR, INDIA. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, AND FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. A 250746Z GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATION OF A PARTIAL INNER CORE WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), MODERATE TO STRONG POLEWARD AND WESTWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). THE RECENT RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN MSI AND OUTPUT FROM GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SUPPORT HIGH CONFIDENCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 251100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 88.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 90.3E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR, INDIA. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND CONVECTIVE BANDING FORMING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. A 240234Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS WINDS OF 25KTS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF FORMATION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND A REVERSAL IN STORM MOTION TOWARD THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 241100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 88.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 90.3E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98B WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP, OFFERING RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PROJECTION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 88.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 89.1E, APPROXIMATELY 342 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98B WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP, OFFERING RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PROJECTION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9N 58.3E, APPROXIMATELY 426 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION WITH THE HINTS OF A MORE DEFINED CIRCULATION BEGINNING TO FORM. A 180442Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 25-30 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT ON 96A, GEFS, NAVGEM, AND GFS ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OUT OF THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS, BOTH SHOW 96A TRACKING EASTWARD FOR THE 24-36 HOURS BEFORE DOUBLING BACK AND TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOMALI COAST. ECMWF LOSES INTEREST IN THE SYSTEM AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS AND ECENS HAS VERY FEW MEMBERS DEPICTING DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.