Hurrikane, Taifune & Zyklone

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 150.6E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA. 1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 150.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 150.6E, APPROXIMATELY 398 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ASSESSED LLCC. A 060004Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWS A CLUSTER OF 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LLCC AND WITH WEAKER WINDS OF 5- 10 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE SEMI-CIRCLE. HOWEVER, THE MOST RECENT ANIMATED MSI SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS QUICKLY CLOSING OFF ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH 20-25KT WINDS MOST LIKELY BEGINNING TO WRAP FURTHER AROUND THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-29 KNOTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PORTRAYING 99W CONTINUING ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK PAST THE MARIANA ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHILE STEADILY CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1011 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 060200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 150.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 150.6E, APPROXIMATELY 398 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ASSESSED LLCC. A 060004Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWS A CLUSTER OF 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LLCC AND WITH WEAKER WINDS OF 5- 10 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE SEMI-CIRCLE. HOWEVER, THE MOST RECENT ANIMATED MSI SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS QUICKLY CLOSING OFF ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH 20-25KT WINDS MOST LIKELY BEGINNING TO WRAP FURTHER AROUND THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-29 KNOTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PORTRAYING 99W CONTINUING ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK PAST THE MARIANA ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHILE STEADILY CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1011 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 060200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0 159.9N IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 150.7E, APPROXIMATELY 408 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT AND CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION. RECENTLY DEVELOPED WESTERLIES SUGGEST THE CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO CLOSE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD GUAM AS IT CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT 99W RETAINING TROUGH-LIKE CHARACTERISTICS UNTIL WEST OF THE NORTHERN MARIANAS, THOUGH ELEVATED WINDS ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 99W BECOMING A WELL-DEFINED OR CLOSED CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1011 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 050900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 159.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 157.2E, APPROXIMATELY 738 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 042103Z SSMIS F16 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A POORLY- ORGANIZED, FULLY EXPOSED WAVE FEATURE, WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. A 042244Z ASCAT-C PASS, SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED EASTERLY WAVE FEATURE, WITH AN AXIS ALONG 158E, MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD WITH ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WHILE LACKING A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT EQUATORWARD THE WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 5- 10 KNOTS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PORTRAYING SLOW CONSOLIDATION INTO A CIRCULATION CENTER, WHILE 99W SLOWLY TRANSITS WESTWARD, OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0N 159.9E, APPROXIMATELY 890 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 99W AS A TROPICAL WAVE PROPAGATING WESTWARD WITH ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WHILE LACKING A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT EQUATORWARD THE WAVE. THIS IS MADE EVIDENT IN A 041013Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS, WHICH ALSO REVEALED 20-25 KNOT EASTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE WAVE AXIS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF (10-15 KTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) OFFSET BY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRANSITS GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 165.8E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA. 1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 165.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 165.8E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. A 2214Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALED A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH 20-25KT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LLCC REMAINS OPEN WITH A TROF EXTENDING EASTWARD AND VERY LIGHT WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS PRESENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW 97W REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT QUICKLY CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ENSEMBLE MODELS QUICKLY SHOW MEMBERS REACHING TROPICAL STORM SPEEDS AS IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 230130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 165.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 165.9E, APPROXIMATELY 178 NM NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLC WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 220919Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF TROUGHING ORIENTED EAST TO WEST WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ENCLOSING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ASSESSED POSITION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29- 30 C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF 97W. MODELS DEPICT A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 230130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 166.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 165.9E, APPROXIMATELY 261 NM NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLC WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 220919Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF TROUGHING ORIENTED EAST TO WEST WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ENCLOSING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ASSESSED POSITION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29- 30 C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF 97W. MODELS DEPICT A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18-23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.0N 166.8E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM SOUTH OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT AREA OF ROTATION WITH FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 97W STAYING QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 162.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 160.4E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED, COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), NOW DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. CONVECTION THAT PREVIOUSLY OBSCURED THE LLCC HAS NOW COLLAPSED AND IS SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 96W TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, INDEPENDENT OF THE RECENT ERRATIC MOTION. BOTH THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW 96W REACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH WINDS ALMOST IMMEDIATELY, THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW 96W CONSOLIDATING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE ENSEMBLE MODELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 131900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 162.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 161.6E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION. A PARTIAL 131046Z ASCAT (METOP-B) PASS REVEALS HEIGHTENED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT FEATURING LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND EASTERLY UPPERLEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT 96W DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WHILE ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE CONSIDERABLY SOONER DEVELOPING INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BOTH MODEL GROUPS SHOW 96W TAKING A GENERALLY WESTNORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 131900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 162.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 161.6E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION. A PARTIAL 131046Z ASCAT (METOP-B) PASS REVEALS HEIGHTENED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT FEATURING LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND EASTERLY UPPER- LEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT 96W DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WHILE ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE CONSIDERABLY SOONER DEVELOPING INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BOTH MODEL GROUPS SHOW 96W TAKING A GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 131900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 163.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 164.3E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH COLLAPSING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 122222Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD OUTER ROTATION WITH A RMW OF ABOUT 90NM, AS WELL AS A TIGHT SWATH OF 15 KT WINDS TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SMALLER EXPOSED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 96W TRACKING WESTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATES AND INTENSIFIED. BOTH ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL DEVELOP BUT THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE GENERALLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE TIMELINE, WHILE THE ENSEMBLES DEPICT A SLOWER DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 163.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 164.7E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM WEST OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 96W AS A BROAD BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LLCC, HOWEVER IT CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (15 KNOTS OR LESS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT 96W AS STEADILY DEVELOPING WHILE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 163.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 163.1E, APPROXIMATELY 146 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF UJELANG. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 102303Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CUSP IN THE WESTERLY WIND BURST. SATELLITE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT 96W DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 163.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 163.8E, APPROXIMATELY 177 NM EAST OF UJELANG. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 102303Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CUSP IN THE WESTERLY WIND BURST. SATELLITE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT 96W DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 163.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 162.6E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM EAST OF UJELANG. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 102303Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CUSP IN THE WESTERLY WIND BURST. SATELLITE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT 96W DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 150.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 150.9E, APPROXIMATELY 306 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTER. TRACING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FEATURES SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS STILL OPEN IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. AN 110205Z OSCAT PASS REVEALS 25-30 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE SHARPLY CURVING TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 150.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 150.7E, APPROXIMATELY 288 NM EAST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTER. TRACING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FEATURES SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS STILL OPEN IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. AN 110205Z OSCAT PASS REVEALS 25-30 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE SHARPLY CURVING TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 146.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY 73 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. ANALYSIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS INDICATE THAT 95W LIKELY DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND RESEMBLES A TROUGH. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED 25 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND, AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OUTSIDE OF 24 HOURS BUT WITHIN 48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE CURVING SHARPLY NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 146.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY 73 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. ANALYSIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS INDICATE THAT 95W LIKELY DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND RESEMBLES A TROUGH. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED 25 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND, AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OUTSIDE OF 24 HOURS BUT WITHIN 48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE CURVING SHARPLY NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 146.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY 73 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. ANALYSIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS INDICATE THAT 95W LIKELY DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND RESEMBLES A TROUGH. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED 25 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND, AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OUTSIDE OF 24 HOURS BUT WITHIN 48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE CURVING SHARPLY NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 144.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 142.3E, APPROXIMATELY 249 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS 95W WITH A POORLY DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE SHOWING MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT FOR 95W AS IT TRACKS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 167.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 167.1E, APPROXIMATELY 51 NM NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 94W AS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION BUILDING NEAR THE CENTER. A 030910Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALED A BAND OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHEN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 167.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 167.3E, APPROXIMATELY 49 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 94W WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS TUCKED UNDERNEATH THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 030910Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALED A BAND OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHEN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 167.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 167.4E, APPROXIMATELY 47 NM SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 94W WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS TUCKED UNDERNEATH THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 030910Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALED A BAND OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHEN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.