Hurrikane, Taifune & Zyklone

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 55.4E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA. 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 55.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 54.3E, APPROXIMATELY 392 NM NORTHEAST OF TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 070331Z 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONVECTION. ELEVATED WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY INDICATE A MORE FAVORABLE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN IN A 070435Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEANCE WITH 94S TRANSITING SLOWLY WESTWARD. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF ARE REMAINING CONSERVATIVE WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 070630) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 58.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 55.9E, APPROXIMATELY 466 NM NORTHEAST OF TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY DECONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING, CONVECTION OVER THE LLC. AN OBSERVATION FROM TROMELIN ISLAND SHOWS SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF 14 KNOTS, A MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MSLP) OF 1011MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 25-26C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, DEPICTING 94S SLOWLY TRANSITING WESTWARD WHILE SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.2S 57.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.9S 55.5E, APPROXIMATELY 47 NM NORTH OF SEYCHELLES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN AREA OF BROAD BUT CONSOLIDATING TURNING ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF FLARING CONVECTION. A 091530Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS REVEALS INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF 93S, WITH BROAD AND ASYMMETRIC BUT DEFINED FORMATIVE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING UNDER THE CONVECTION. A 191724Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALS ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15- 20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C), AND MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF 93S, THOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE ENSEMBLES. 93S IS EXPECTED TO TRANSIT GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 192000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.