Hurrikane, Taifune & Zyklone

Eastern East Pacific: Shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished near the small area of low pressure located several hundred miles offshore of El Salvador and Nicaragua. Environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for development over the next several days as the system drifts westward or west-southwestward away from land, and development is no longer expected. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Off the East Coast of the United States: A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area is located along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeast coast of the United States. This low is likely to move slowly north-northeastward over the next couple of days. If the low remains over the Gulf Stream and becomes detached from the front, it could briefly acquire some subtropical cyclone characteristics during the middle to latter portions of the week. The system is expected to move northeastward away from the the eastern United States later this week, and environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for development by the weekend. Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast during the next few days. Please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center for more information, along with High Seas Forecasts and Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Off the East Coast of the United States: A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area is located along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeast coast of the United States. This low is likely to move slowly and erratically over the next couple of days. If the low remains over the Gulf Stream and becomes detached from the front, it could briefly acquire some subtropical cyclone characteristics during the middle to latter portions of the week. The system is expected to begin to move northeastward away from the the eastern United States later this week, and environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for development by the weekend. Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast during the next few days. Please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center for more information, along with High Seas Forecasts and Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Off the East Coast of the United States: A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area is located along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeast coast of the United States. This low is likely to move slowly and erratically over the next couple of days, and it could gradually acquire subtropical characteristics if it remains over the Gulf Stream. A subtropical cyclone could form during the middle to latter portions of the week when the system begins to move northeastward away from the eastern United States. Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for development by the weekend. Regardless of the system's status, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast during the next few days. Please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center for more information, along with High Seas Forecasts and Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Off the East Coast of the United States: A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area is developing along a frontal boundary tonight off the southeast coast of the United States. This low is likely to move slowly and erratically over the next couple of days while it initially remains non-tropical. Later this week, if the system stays over the Gulf Stream, environmental conditions could become more conducive for the low to develop some subtropical characteristics. A subtropical cyclone could form over the second half of this week as the system begins moving generally northeastward, offshore of the eastern United States. Regardless of development, this system will cause high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf along portions of the U.S. East Coast. Please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center for more information, along with High Seas Forecasts and Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Off the East Coast of the United States: A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area is expected to form later today or tonight off the southeast coast of the United States. This low is likely to move slowly and erratically through the middle of this week, and some subtropical development is possible during that time. Regardless of development, this system will cause high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf along portions of the U.S. East Coast. Please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center for more information, along with High Seas Forecasts and Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms, associated with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south of Guatemala, remain disorganized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form around the middle of this week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph, well to the south of the coast of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have persisted with an area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south of Guatemala. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form around the middle of this week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph, well to the south of the coast of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure is developing well offshore to the south of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form around the middle of this week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward, remaining well south of the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of southern Mexico during the next day or two. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form around the middle of this week while it moves westward to west-northwestward, well south of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of southern Mexico within a couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form around the middle of this week while it moves westward to west-northwestward, well south of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of southern Mexico within a couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form around the middle of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward, well south of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the latter half of next week while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the eastern and central portions of the East Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form during the latter half of next week while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the eastern and central portions of the East Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form during the second half of next week while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the east to central portion of the East Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form during the second half of next week while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the east to central portion of the East Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the east to central portion of the East Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9N 58.3E, APPROXIMATELY 426 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION WITH THE HINTS OF A MORE DEFINED CIRCULATION BEGINNING TO FORM. A 180442Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 25-30 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT ON 96A, GEFS, NAVGEM, AND GFS ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OUT OF THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS, BOTH SHOW 96A TRACKING EASTWARD FOR THE 24-36 HOURS BEFORE DOUBLING BACK AND TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOMALI COAST. ECMWF LOSES INTEREST IN THE SYSTEM AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS AND ECENS HAS VERY FEW MEMBERS DEPICTING DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 163.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 163.6W, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST OF SWAINS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 151128Z 89 GHZ AMSR3 MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A FULLY OBSCURED LOWER- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER AND PROMINENT FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF 92P. A 151126Z OSCAT PASS EMPHASIZES CONSOLIDATING CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH ELEVATED (25-30KT) WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER, ALL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAVOR OF 92P MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EXCEPTIONALLY COLD WATER PAST 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 163.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 163.4W, APPROXIMATELY 512 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 151128Z 89 GHZ AMSR3 MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A FULLY OBSCURED LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER AND PROMINENT FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF 92P. A 151126Z OSCAT PASS EMPHASIZES CONSOLIDATING CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH ELEVATED (25-30KT) WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER, ALL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAVOR OF 92P MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EXCEPTIONALLY COLD WATER PAST 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 151800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 163.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 163.4W, APPROXIMATELY 512 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 151128Z 89 GHZ AMSR3 MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A FULLY OBSCURED LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER AND PROMINENT FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF 92P. A 151126Z OSCAT PASS EMPHASIZES CONSOLIDATING CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH ELEVATED (25-30KT) WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER, ALL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAVOR OF 92P MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EXCEPTIONALLY COLD WATER PAST 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 151800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.9S 164.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3S 164.7W, APPROXIMATELY 407 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SWAINS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 142041Z 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY. A 142003Z ASCAT PASS EMPHASIZES A BROAD AND OPEN CIRCULATION WITH ELEVATED (20-25KT) WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM FROM THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). THE CURRENT MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 92P SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.7S 166.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.9S 164.9W, APPROXIMATELY 558 NM NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SPORADIC, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG UPPERLEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 92P STAYING QUASISTATIONARY BEFORE BEGINNING TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AFTER IT CONSOLIDATES MORE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.7S 166.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3S 166.3W, APPROXIMATELY 487 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SPORADIC, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG UPPER- LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 92P STAYING QUASISTATIONARY BEFORE BEGINNING TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AFTER IT CONSOLIDATES MORE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 162.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 160.4E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED, COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), NOW DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. CONVECTION THAT PREVIOUSLY OBSCURED THE LLCC HAS NOW COLLAPSED AND IS SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 96W TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, INDEPENDENT OF THE RECENT ERRATIC MOTION. BOTH THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW 96W REACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH WINDS ALMOST IMMEDIATELY, THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW 96W CONSOLIDATING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE ENSEMBLE MODELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 131900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 162.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 161.6E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION. A PARTIAL 131046Z ASCAT (METOP-B) PASS REVEALS HEIGHTENED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT FEATURING LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND EASTERLY UPPERLEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT 96W DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WHILE ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE CONSIDERABLY SOONER DEVELOPING INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BOTH MODEL GROUPS SHOW 96W TAKING A GENERALLY WESTNORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 131900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 162.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 161.6E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION. A PARTIAL 131046Z ASCAT (METOP-B) PASS REVEALS HEIGHTENED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT FEATURING LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND EASTERLY UPPER- LEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT 96W DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WHILE ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE CONSIDERABLY SOONER DEVELOPING INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BOTH MODEL GROUPS SHOW 96W TAKING A GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 131900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 163.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 164.3E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH COLLAPSING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 122222Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD OUTER ROTATION WITH A RMW OF ABOUT 90NM, AS WELL AS A TIGHT SWATH OF 15 KT WINDS TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SMALLER EXPOSED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 96W TRACKING WESTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATES AND INTENSIFIED. BOTH ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL DEVELOP BUT THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE GENERALLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE TIMELINE, WHILE THE ENSEMBLES DEPICT A SLOWER DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 163.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 164.7E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM WEST OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 96W AS A BROAD BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LLCC, HOWEVER IT CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (15 KNOTS OR LESS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT 96W AS STEADILY DEVELOPING WHILE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 163.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 163.1E, APPROXIMATELY 146 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF UJELANG. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 102303Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CUSP IN THE WESTERLY WIND BURST. SATELLITE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT 96W DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 163.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 163.8E, APPROXIMATELY 177 NM EAST OF UJELANG. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 102303Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CUSP IN THE WESTERLY WIND BURST. SATELLITE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT 96W DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 163.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 162.6E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM EAST OF UJELANG. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 102303Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CUSP IN THE WESTERLY WIND BURST. SATELLITE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT 96W DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A low pressure trough located several hundred miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Further development of this system is no longer expected as the low moves slowly northward to north-northwestward within an area of strong upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms well to the east of its center. Further development of this system appears unlikely as the low moves slowly northward to north-northwestward and encounters stronger upper-level winds today and tonight. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected to continue today across western portions of the Cabo Verde Islands with some flooding possible there. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large, but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms on its east side, extending toward the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear, at best, only marginally conducive for development of this system before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development on Tuesday. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected to continue for the next day or two across western portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and some flooding is possible there as the system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms occurring on its east side, extending toward the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear, at best, only marginally conducive for development of this system during the next day or so before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development on Tuesday. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected to continue for the next day or two across western portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and some flooding is possible there as the system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms, which are occurring on the east side of the low, extending toward the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear, at best, marginally conducive for any development of this system during the next day or two before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected to continue for the next day or two across western portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and some flooding is possible there as the system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms extending from these islands southwestward into the eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear, at best, marginally conducive for any development of this system during the next day or two before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected over the couple of days for portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms, extending from these islands southwestward into the eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some development of this system over the next day or two before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development by midweek. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected over the next few days for portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms, extending from these islands southwestward into the eastern Tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some development of this system over the next day or two before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development by midweek. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected over the next few days for portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms extending from these islands southward into the eastern Tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some development of this system over the next day or two before upper-level winds become too strong for development by midweek. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will be possible during the next few days over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered about 100 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms extending from near those islands southward for several hundred miles. Some development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while the low north-northwestward before upper-level winds become too strong for development by midweek. Very heavy rainfall is also possible during the next few days over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands regardless of whether the system ever becomes a tropical cyclone. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (EP93): Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of Guatemala. This system is gradually becoming better defined, and environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development. A tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form well south of southern Mexico later tonight or tomorrow while the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (EP93): A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is gradually becoming better defined, and environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development. A tropical depression is expected to form well south of southern Mexico in the next two days while the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (EP93): A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is gradually becoming better defined, and environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development. A tropical depression is expected to form well south of southern Mexico in the next two days while the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (EP93): A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala, accompanied by some shower and thunderstorm activity. This system has become better defined since yesterday, and environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development. A tropical depression is expected to form well south of southern Mexico in a few days while the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: A tropical wave over the far eastern part of the east Pacific is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form well south of southern Mexico by the middle or latter half of the week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: A tropical wave over the far eastern East Pacific is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form well south of southern Mexico by the middle or latter half of the week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: A tropical wave over the far eastern East Pacific is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form well south of southern Mexico by the middle or latter half of the week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern East Pacific are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form well south of southern Mexico by the middle or latter half of next week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 150.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 150.9E, APPROXIMATELY 306 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTER. TRACING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FEATURES SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS STILL OPEN IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. AN 110205Z OSCAT PASS REVEALS 25-30 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE SHARPLY CURVING TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 150.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 150.7E, APPROXIMATELY 288 NM EAST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTER. TRACING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FEATURES SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS STILL OPEN IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. AN 110205Z OSCAT PASS REVEALS 25-30 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE SHARPLY CURVING TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 146.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY 73 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. ANALYSIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS INDICATE THAT 95W LIKELY DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND RESEMBLES A TROUGH. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED 25 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND, AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OUTSIDE OF 24 HOURS BUT WITHIN 48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE CURVING SHARPLY NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 146.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY 73 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. ANALYSIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS INDICATE THAT 95W LIKELY DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND RESEMBLES A TROUGH. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED 25 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND, AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OUTSIDE OF 24 HOURS BUT WITHIN 48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE CURVING SHARPLY NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 146.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY 73 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. ANALYSIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS INDICATE THAT 95W LIKELY DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND RESEMBLES A TROUGH. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED 25 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND, AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OUTSIDE OF 24 HOURS BUT WITHIN 48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE CURVING SHARPLY NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 144.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 142.3E, APPROXIMATELY 249 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS 95W WITH A POORLY DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE SHOWING MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT FOR 95W AS IT TRACKS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

South of Southwestern Mexico: An area of low pressure is forecast to develop south or southwest of the coast of Mexico by early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle or latter half of next week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

South of Guatemala: An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle or latter half of next week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

South of Guatemala: An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the latter half of next week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

South of Guatemala: An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late next week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

South of Guatemala: An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

South of Guatemala: An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (EP92): A broad area of low pressure located offshore of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico over the next few days. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (EP92): Shower and thunderstorm coverage has been increasing in association with a broad area of low pressure located offshore of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico over the next few days. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92): Satellite images and surface observations indicate that showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized while surface pressures are gradually falling. If these trends continue, advisories will likely be issued on this system later today or tonight while it moves slowly eastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in a couple of days. The disturbance is expected to turn to the north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week. It is still too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should closely monitor the progress of this system. The NOAA Gulfstream jet is en route to sample the environment over the Gulf this afternoon and Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of America. Continued development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is anticipated to form over the next day or so while it drifts eastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in a couple of days. The disturbance is expected to turn to the north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week. It is still too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should closely monitor the progress of this system. The NOAA Gulfstream is scheduled to sample the environment over the Gulf later today and an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92): A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for development, a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. The system is expected to drift east-northeastward through the middle portion of the week before turning northward. It is too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92): A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be only marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle portion of the week. This system is expected to drift east-northeastward over the next couple of days, before it turns northward. It is too early to determine the specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92): A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next couple of days, before it turns northward. It is too early to determine the specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (92E): A broad area of low pressure located offshore of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (92E): A broad area of low pressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (92E): A broad area of low pressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle to latter portion of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, just offshore of the southern to southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is currently producing scattered showers and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle to latter portion of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, just offshore of the southern to southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is located just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle to latter portion of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, just offshore of the southern to southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the next day or so just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle to latter portion of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, just offshore of the southern to southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the next day or so just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle to latter portion of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, just offshore of the southern to southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle to latter portion of next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter portion of next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure could form in a few days south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely form by the middle of next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely form while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely form while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of America: A surface trough of low pressure has developed along the coast of Mexico in the southwestern Gulf of America. Although environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive, gradual development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form by the second half of this week while it initially drifts eastward before turning northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of America: An area of low pressure is likely to form around the middle of the week over the southwestern Gulf of America. Although environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive, some slow development is possible and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system drifts northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of America: An area of low pressure is likely to form around the middle of the week over the southwestern Gulf of America. Although environmental conditions are only expected to be marginally conducive, some slow development is possible and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system drifts northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of America: A broad area of low pressure could form in a few days over the southwestern Gulf of America. Some subsequent slow development of this system is possible while it drifts northward over the southwestern Gulf. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of America: A broad area of low pressure could form in a few days over the southwestern Gulf of America. Some subsequent slow development of this system is possible as it drifts over the southwestern Gulf waters. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of America: A broad area of low pressure could form in a few days over the southwestern Gulf of America. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur as it drifts over the southwestern Gulf waters. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 167.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 167.1E, APPROXIMATELY 51 NM NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 94W AS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION BUILDING NEAR THE CENTER. A 030910Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALED A BAND OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHEN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 167.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 167.3E, APPROXIMATELY 49 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 94W WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS TUCKED UNDERNEATH THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 030910Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALED A BAND OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHEN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 167.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 167.4E, APPROXIMATELY 47 NM SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 94W WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS TUCKED UNDERNEATH THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 030910Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALED A BAND OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHEN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Subtropical West-Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay): Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of former Tropical Storm Fay located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda have become less organized since yesterday. No further development is expected while it moves north-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph to the east of Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Subtropical West-Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure (the remnants of former Tropical Storm Fay) located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda have become less organized during the past several hours. Dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant re-development while it moves north-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph to the east of Bermuda. Any formation chances should end by Sunday due to very strong upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Subtropical West-Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay): A trough of low pressure associated with the remnants of former Tropical Storm Fay is located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda. Despite ongoing thunderstorm activity, dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant re-development while it moves north-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph to the east of Bermuda. Any formation chances should end by Sunday due to very strong upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Subtropical Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay): An area of low pressure associated with the remnants of former Tropical Storm Fay is located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. Despite ongoing thunderstorm activity, dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant re-development while it moves northwestward, to the east of Bermuda. Any formation chances should end by Sunday due to very strong upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Subtropical Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay): A low pressure area associated with the remnants of former Tropical Storm Fay is located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. While thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant re-development while it moves northwestward, to the east of Bermuda. Any formation chances should end by Sunday due to very strong upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.